Using Monte Carlo to Predict When Work Will Be Done

June 15, 2020

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In a previous episode I showed you, how the Cycle Time Scatterplot can be used to predict when a specific item on your Kanban board might be completed.

But what exactly do you do when you want to know how long it will take to complete a complex project with say 100 work items?

You might think that if you know the average throughput of completed items per time period, you could use this to figure out how many time units it would take to complete 100 items...and so on...

... and this would lead you to precisely the wrong answer!

Why this is so and how you should use the Monte Carlo simulation in Kanbanize to find a valid answer, is the topic of my next episode.

Below are the other episodes in this series on flow metrics:

Was this helpful? Please let me know in the comments below!

About the author

Business Agility Coach | Abundance Thinker | Helping Mid-Market Companies Evolve by Using the Kanban Methodology - As trained Industrial Engineer with close on 25 years' experience as IT Professional and Business Executive in the mid-market IT industry, Mathias Tölken loves to share his experiences and expertise with others.


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